2025 NFL Week 4 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors
2025 NFL Week4 Picks & Predictions
In a double encore performance, The Algorithm again went 9-7 for the third straight week., In week 4, we are blending 25% 2024 stats and 75% 2025 stats this week in power ratings generations.
Indianapolis is actually being held back by their 2024 Power Rating and would have a rating approaching 108 if we were using solely 2025 stats as we will starting next week. Also note that Pittsburgh vs Minnesota is being played in Ireland so the Steelers do not get the 2.5 point home field advantage.
Week 3 Against The Spread 9 – 7
2025 Season 27 – 21
Algorithm Lifetime Record
2025: 27 – 21 (56.25%)
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)
Lifetime: 290 – 252 – 18 (53.51%)
2025 NFL Week 4 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors
Week 4 Line Error Picks
Tampa Bay – 6.17 point error
Carolina – 5.00 point error
Las Vegas – 4.71 point errer
NY Jets – 4.23 point error
Indianapolis – 4.00 point error
There are five games on the week 4 schedule with line errors of 4 points or more. Be sure to check injuries reports and weather before betting blindly on statistics.
The NFLlines.com Algorithm
The NFL Lines Algorithm uses the current season NFL stats to generate power ratings for each team. Then it uses the power ratings to predict games against the Las Vegas Spread. Home teams are awarded 2.5 points for home field advantage.
Vegas spread is the line on the game. It is relative to the home team.
- A Vegas spread listed as negative means the home team is favored.
- A Vegas spread listed as positive means the home team is an underdog.
The difference between the Algorithm’s point spread and the Vegas point spread is the spread error.
- A negative spread error means the Algorithm likes the home team.
- A positive spread error means the Algortihm favors the away team.
NFL Week 3 vs. Spread
Favorites 9 – 7
Season 27 – 21
Home 9 – 7
Season 20 – 27
Neutral Games – 1 (Team Listed Home is 1 – 0)
NFL Week 2 Straight Up
Favorites 12 – 4
Season 37 – 11
Home 12 – 4
Season 27 – 20
Neutral Games – 1 (Underdog is 1 – 0)
The Algorithm bases all team power ratings and game picks on statistics only.
- The Algorithm cannot see weather.
- The Algorithm cannot see injuries.
- The Algorithm cannot see roster moves.
- The Algorithm cannot see momentum, karma, or desire.
Accumulated Stats Don’t Change Due To Injury
The Algorithm cannot do this because the statistics from last week and the week before don’t change because someone was injured.
In theory, the stats were impacted by their absence. But if you have 10 weeks of stats with a QB playing and then he is hurt in week 11, the stats of that week 11 game when blended in with the other 10 games are not diminished enough to show the true loss in team power rating.
This is why this warning is posted frequently during the season along with this advice: You should other handicapping sources and statistics in addition to The Algorithm’s ratings and picks before wagering on any of The Algorithm’s selections.
