2025 NFL Week 3 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors

2025 NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions

In an encore performance, The Algorithm again went 9-7 in Week 2,  In week 3, we are blending 50% 2024 stats and 50% 2025 stats this week in power ratings generations.

Week 2 Against The Spread  9 – 7

2025 Season 18 – 14

Algorithm Lifetime Record

2025: 18 – 14 (56.25%)
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)

Lifetime: 281 -245 – 18 (53.42%)

2025 NFL Week 3 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors

Week 3 Line Error Picks

New England

Jacksonville

NY Giants

This week 13 games have line errors inside of 3 points; five have line errors under 1 point, and 7 games have line errors between 1  – 2 points.

The Algorithm like the Patriots getting 1.5 from Pittsburgh at home.  This is a line error of just over 3 points.

The Algorithm also likes those spunky G-men, getting a healthy 6.5 points at home from a Kansas City Team that is running on 3 cyclinders right now.  The Algorithm sees this game as a 4.69 point line error.

Finally, The Algorithm sees a massive 6.5 point line error in taking the Jags getting 1.5 points fromHouston at home.

Of course the Algorithm started its week 3 picks with Miami and Cleveland so who knows what it is thinking from week to week….

The NFLlines.com Algorithm

The NFL Lines Algorithm uses the current season NFL stats to generate power ratings for each team.  Then it uses the power ratings to predict games against the Las Vegas Spread.  Home teams are awarded 2.5 points for home field advantage.

Vegas spread is the line on the game.  It is relative to the home team.

• A Vegas spread listed as negative means the home team is favored.
• A Vegas spread listed as positive means the home team is an underdog.

The difference between the Algorithm’s point spread and the Vegas point spread is the spread error.

• A negative spread error means the Algorithm likes the home team.
• A positive spread error means the Algortihm favors the away team.

NFL Week 2 vs. Spread

Favorites 9 – 7
Season 18 – 14

Home 5 – 11
Season 11 – 920

Neutral Games – 1 (Team Listed Home is 1 – 0)

NFL Week 2 Straight Up

Favorites 11 – 5
Season 25 – 7

Home 7– 9
Season 15 – 16

Neutral Games – 1 (Underdog is 1 – 0)

The Algorithm bases all team power ratings and game picks on statistics only.

• The Algorithm cannot see weather.
• The Algorithm cannot see injuries.
• The Algorithm cannot see roster moves.
• The Algorithm cannot see momentum, karma, or desire.

So, for example, The Algorithm has no idea George Kittle is out for Week 2.  It won’t know anything more than it does now if Brock Purdy were to miss week 2 as well.  A normal handicapper would make some adjustment to their ratings and/or picks to account for this.

Accumulated Stats Don’t Change Due To Injury

The Algorithm cannot do this because the statistics from last week and the week before don’t change because someone was injured.

In theory, the stats were impacted by their absence.  But if you have 10 weeks of stats with a QB playing and then he is hurt in week 11, the stats of that week 11 game when blended in with the other 10 games are not diminished enough to show the true loss in team power rating.

This is why this warning is posted frequently during the season along with this advice:  You should other handicapping sources and statistics in addition to The Algorithm’s ratings and picks before wagering on any of The Algorithm’s selections.