2025 NFL Week 2 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors
2025 NFL Week 2 Picks & Predictions
After going 9 – 7 in Week 1, The Algorithm is back with the first stats of 2025 and a new batch of NFL week 2 game picks. We are blending 75% 2024 stats and 25% 2025 stats this week in power ratings generations.
This would be a good time to unleash the weekly Algorithm warning:
The Algorithm bases all team power ratings and game picks on statistics only.
- The Algorithm cannot see weather.
- The Algorithm cannot see injuries.
- The Algorithm cannot see roster moves.
- The Algorithm cannot see momentum, karma, or desire.
So, for example, The Algorithm has no idea George Kittle is out for Week 2. It won’t know anything more than it does now if Brock Purdy were to miss week 2 as well. A normal handicapper would make some adjustment to their ratings and/or picks to account for this.
Accumulated Stats Don’t Change Due To Injury
The Algorithm cannot do this because the statistics from last week and the week before don’t change because someone was injured.
In theory, the stats were impacted by their absence. But if you have 10 weeks of stats with a QB playing and then he is hurt in week 11, the stats of that week 11 game when blended in with the other 10 games are not diminished enough to show the true loss in team power rating.
This is why this warning is posted frequently during the season along with this advice: You should other handicapping sources and statistics in addition to The Algorithm’s ratings and picks before wagering on any of The Algorithm’s selections.
This week has only 5 games that have line errors of 3 points or more. The Algorithm is riding the home team in four of the five games (Algorithm selection is in bold).
2025 NFL Week 2 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors
Week 2 Line Error Picks
Chicago @ Detroit
LA Rams @ Tennesee
New England @ Miami
Buffalo @ NY Jets
Tampa Bay @ Houston
The other eleven games all have line errors inside of 3 points; five have line errors under 1 point, three more are under 1.5 points. With five games decided by 0.5 points last week, it appears as if Vegas is dialed in on the league so far in 2025.
The NFLlines.com Algorithm
The NFL Lines Algorithm uses the current season NFL stats to generate power ratings for each team. Then it uses the power ratings to predict games against the Las Vegas Spread. Home teams are awarded 2.5 points for home field advantage.
Vegas spread is the line on the game. It is relative to the home team.
- A Vegas spread listed as negative means the home team is favored.
- A Vegas spread listed as positive means the home team is an underdog.
The difference between the Algorithm’s point spread and the Vegas point spread is the spread error.
- A negative spread error means the Algorithm likes the home team.
- A positive spread error means the Algortihm favors the away team.
2025 Record
Against The Spread: 9 – 7
Algorithm Lifetime Record
2025: 9 – 7 (56.25%)
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)
Lifetime: 272 -238 – 18 (53.53%)
NFL Week 1 vs. Spread
Favorites 9 – 7
Season 9 – 7
Home 6 – 9
Season 6 – 9
Neutral Games – 1 (Team Listed Home is 1 – 0)
NFL Week 1 Straight Up
Favorites 14 – 2
Season 14 – 2
Home 8– 7
Season 8 – 7
Neutral Games – 1 (Underdog is 1 – 0)
