2025 NFL Week 1 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors
2025 NFL Week 1 Picks & Predictions
The 2025 NFL season is here, and week 1 kicks off Thursday September 4th with the Dallas Cowboys visiting the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles at The Linc in South Philly. The Algorithm likes the Eagles in this matchup, but be forewarned:
The NFLlines.com Algorithm makes all its selections based on statistics.
In week 1, the power ratings are essentially 2024 power ratings with some very minor adjustments. In week 2, the week 1 stats will count as 25% of the rating.
In week 3, 2025 stats will count for 50% of a team’s power rating, and in week 4 the 2025 stats will account for 75% of the power ratings. Finally in week 5 picks, the Algorithm will be using only 2025 statistics in generating the team power ratings and its picks.
Traditionally, weeks 1 & 2 produce the most upsets, so if you want to try to catch some nice underdog moneyline winners, weeks 1 and 2 are normally a couple of the best weeks to try. Because it uses statistics for everything, the Algorithm is most vulnerable during the first five weeks of the season when it is relying on 2024 stats and a small sample of 2025 stats.
Also note that the Chargers Chiefs game is an international game in Brazil so no home field advantage was awarded to the Chargers who are listed as the home team.
The NFLlines.com Algorithm
The NFL Lines Algorithm uses the current season NFL stats to generate power ratings for each team. Then it uses the power ratings to predict games against the Las Vegas Spread. Home teams are awarded 2.5 points for home field advantage.
Vegas spread is the line on the game. It is relative to the home team.
- A Vegas spread listed as negative means the home team is favored.
- A Vegas spread listed as positive means the home team is an underdog.
The difference between the Algorithm’s point spread and the Vegas point spread is the spread error.
- A negative spread error means the Algorithm likes the home team.
- A positive spread error means the Algortihm favors the away team.
2025 Record
Against The Spread: 0 – 0
Straight Up: 0 – 0
Algorithm Lifetime Record
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)
Lifetime: 263 -231 – 1 (53.24%)
NFL Week 1 vs. Spread
Favorites 0 – 0
Season 0 – 0 – 0
Home 0 – 0
Season 0 – 0 – 0
Neutral Games – 0 (Team Listed Home is 0 – 0)
NFL Week 1 Straight Up
Favorites 0 – 0
Season 0 – 0
Home 0 – 0
Season 0 – 0
Neutral Games – 0 (Favorite is 0 – 0)
